Friday marked the third anniversary of the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and the end of the first U.S. campaign in what has been dubbed the Global War on Terror.
But the conclusion to the 20-year-long war, which saw the death of more than 6,200 American soldiers and contractors, over 1,100 allied troops, 70,000 Afghan military and police, and more than 46,300 Afghan civilians, ultimately resulted in the collapse of Afghanistan to the Taliban and a safe haven for al Qaeda – once again becoming a “crucible of terrorism,” according to former Afghan Lt. Gen. Sami Sadat.
Despite the more than $2.3 trillion spent on the war in Afghanistan and President Biden’s pronouncement that al Qaeda was “gone,” the terrorist group is stronger than it was before the attacks on Sept. 11, 2001, argued Sadat, author of “The Last Commander: The Once and Future Battle for Afghanistan.”
“There is 50,000 al Qaeda members and al Qaeda associates in Afghanistan – most of them have trained for overseas operations in the last three years,” Sadat, who served in the Afghan military and security apparatus for nearly two decades, told Fox News Digital in an interview.
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Fox News Digital could not independently verify the exact number of al Qaeda militants in and outside of Afghanistan, though the figure cited by Sadat is only half the number of al Qaeda militants he believes are spread across the Arab world – a number at shocking odds with the 4,000 al-Qaeda members at large prior to the 9/11 attacks.
The terrorist organization allegedly encompasses some 60 bases in 19 countries, including at least a dozen training camps in Afghanistan that have been set up since the U.S. withdrawal.
“Allowing them to retake Afghanistan with the Taliban in 2021 gave them a new rallying call. This is now their most important hub,” Sadat reported in his book, which was released earlier this month. “Al Qaeda not only survived but adapted to the changing policies of American administrations, waiting the West out of Iraq and Afghanistan and watching the U.S. attack their Islamic State rivals in the Middle East.”
U.S. intelligence assesses that despite al Qaeda’s significant numbers, it is currently incapable of carrying out long-range attacks. Though security experts probed by Fox News Digital pushed back on the assessment and questioned whether the intelligence community has made a distinction between capability and intent, and Sadat argued al Qaeda is capable of carrying out a “major attack.”
Al Qaeda, like many terrorist organizations, has long relied on fairly unsophisticated methods of attack to cause widespread hurt on civilian populations.
But there is now one major difference contributing to the al Qaeda group that has re-emerged today versus the terrorist organization that carried out the 9/11 attacks – nation-state backing.
Al Qaeda in the late 1990s was primarily financed by private financial facilitators spread throughout the Gulf region that helped funnel money to the group, as reported by the 9/11 Commission, which was established in the aftermath of Sept. 11, 2001, to investigate all aspects of the terrorist attacks.
The commission further said it found “no persuasive evidence” to prove the terrorist group had received any funding from foreign governments in the lead up to the attack – findings that draw a stark comparison to government accounts of al Qaeda over the last few years.
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Just days before the Trump administration left the White House, former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo said in a Jan. 12, 2021, speech that “al-Qaeda has a new home base: it is the Islamic Republic of Iran.”
Pompeo suggested that this information had been known for at least a year after al Qaeda member Abu Muhammad al-Masri, mastermind of the 1998 attacks on U.S. embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, had been killed in Tehran – a finding that originally surprised officials in the security apparatus, given the long-held differences between the Sunni terrorist organization and the Shiite nation.
But Iran’s housing of the al Qaeda terrorists signaled that there was a new era in the fight against Islamic extremism, further showing that Tehran had become deeply involved in sheltering and arming not only other Shiite terrorist groups, but also al Qaeda and the Taliban.
Following the U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, reports surfaced showing that Iran had not only been improving ties with the group in an effort to unite against the U.S. and its Western allies, it had provided arms to the Taliban as far back as 2009.
Iran, one of the first countries to normalize ties with the Taliban, has routinely deported Afghans who supported the U.S. and fled the country following the Taliban takeover – often resulting in their arrest and even execution, explained Sadat.
“In October 2021, immediately after the fall of Afghanistan, there was a meeting conducted in Tehran among Esmail Qaani, the Quds Force leader with the IRGC, al Qaeda’s then international operations leader Saif al-Adel, who is currently al Qaeda’s leader, and the Taliban representative Mulla Abdul Hakim Mujahid,” Sadat told Fox News Digital.
The lieutenant general said that during the meeting Tehran had offered to finance the “reconstitution and recruitment” of al Qaeda and encouraged the Taliban to give them space for training and army building.
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“They started a process of peace, brokering between these groups across the Middle East,” Sadat said, pointing to one of the first truces formed between Shia Houthi rebels in Yemen and Sunni al Qaeda militants across the Arabian Peninsula. “They said they could use each other’s fighters, intelligence and facilities to conduct attacks against the U.S.
“That has dramatically shaped the Middle East,” he warned.
Sadat – who is said to have been the last Aghan commander that remained fighting the Taliban after former Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled Kabul on Aug. 15, 2021 – explained how a series of poor strategic and operational decisions in Afghanistan that were dictated by political turmoil in the U.S., had devastating consequences for not only Afghanistan but also global security.
The U.S. began striking al Qaeda and the Taliban in October 2001 in the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks.
But following seven years of war, just a third of the amount of time the U.S. would spend in Afghanistan, Americans had grown tired of the war.
A push to limit combat operations under the Obama administration, followed by a botched deal between the Trump administration and the Taliban – an agreement that blindsided the Afghan government and empowered the militant group – cemented by President Biden’s refusal to rethink the U.S.’s long-term strategy in Afghanistan, meant that Afghan forces had been starved of ammunition as well as adequate U.S. air support, and morale had become increasingly depleted as Taliban forces continued to attack in “waves.”
“The war was lost not because the Taliban were strong but because for twenty years it was not treated as a war but as a short-term intervention,” Sadat wrote. “The better American officials knew the problem.
“They had a saying: ‘It’s not year twenty. It’s year one for the twentieth time’,” he added.
The overall sentiment in the U.S., spanning multiple administrations from both sides of the aisle, was a desire to stop the “endless” wars against Islamic extremism.
But Sadat argued that Washington’s inability to oust the Taliban, counter state-funded nations like Iran, and consistently support the Afghan forces safeguarding their newly formed democratic government, has meant that terrorist groups today are motivated and forging ties with Western adversaries like Iran, North Korea, Russia and China.
“Afghanistan has once again become a crucible of international terrorism, under Taliban protection,” Sadat wrote. “Those of us who left carry with us our education – and a burning desire to return. The new generation, my generation, have the motivation to take back Afghanistan and change it once and for all in the direction of peace and prosperity.
“For now, I am a general without an army,” he said.
Sadat said he fully intends to return to Afghanistan one day.