The latest USDA livestock and poultry outlook projects that U.S. beef production will decline in 2026, although the drop is expected to be less severe than last year. At the recent USDA Ag Outlook Forum, agricultural economists highlighted that the nation’s cattle herd has been contracting since 2019. As a result, cattle are staying on feed longer, which has increased average dress weights and helped support overall beef production levels.
According to USDA data, the number of cattle on feed as of February 1 totaled 11.5 million head, a 2% decrease compared to a year ago. Placements into feedlots during January were reported at 1.74 million head, down 5% year-over-year. Meanwhile, marketings of fed cattle in January came in at 1.63 million head, marking a 13% decrease from the previous year.
Despite the ongoing contraction in herd size, increased weights per animal have buffered some of the production decline. However, with fewer cattle entering the pipeline, the overall downward trend in beef production is expected to continue through 2026.