A new revenue projection from the General Assembly’s bipartisan Commission on Government Forecasting and Accountability (COGFA) shows lawmakers expect $737 million less than Gov. JB Pritzker’s proposed budget for fiscal year 2026. COGFA estimates revenue at $54.2 billion, while Pritzker’s plan stands at $55.5 billion.
COGFA’s Revenue Manager Eric Noggle emphasized the need for a cautious approach amid economic uncertainties, including federal spending cuts and tariffs from the Trump Administration, which could raise prices and inflation.
Republicans criticized Pritzker for using “fuzzy math,” suggesting he may need to cut spending or raise taxes. COGFA also revised its forecast for FY 2025, projecting $53.6 billion in revenue—more than budgeted, but less than the governor’s estimates.
This means he and his Democratic allies will either have to cut spending, increase taxes, or both,” said Sen. Don DeWitte, R-St. Charles, a member of COGFA. “It’s time for the governor to focus on the dire financial situation he has created through irresponsible spending in our state.”
Strong personal income tax receipts are helping, but corporate income taxes are expected to fall short by 12%. COGFA plans to revisit these estimates in May before the budget is finalized by the end of the month.
In summary, Illinois faces significant revenue challenges as lawmakers prepare for crucial budget negotiations.
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