The USDA’s May 12th crop production report offered the first detailed look at the 2026 balance sheets for corn and soybeans, but it was the wheat estimates that dominated market attention. The department projected the smallest U.S. wheat crop since 1972, with production estimates dropping to 1.56 billion bushels—down a staggering 423 million bushels from the previous year. The decline is attributed to a combination of fewer planted acres and lower yield expectations.
For corn, the USDA forecasts 2026 production at 15.9 billion bushels, marking a 6% decrease from 2025. The average yield is expected to reach 183 bushels per acre. In contrast, soybean production is set to rise by 4% compared to last year, with a total of 4.4 billion bushels and an average yield of 53 bushels per acre.
The latest crop progress and condition report, released Monday, indicated that 54% of the state’s corn crop has been planted—matching the five-year average. Soybean planting is ahead of schedule at 57%, 10 points above the average. Corn emergence is at 30%, up from the five-year average of 23%, while soybean emergence stands at 31%, notably higher than the 18% average.
During the week ending May 10th, there were 3.2 days suitable for fieldwork. The average temperature was 56.5 degrees, which is 3.8 degrees below normal, and precipitation averaged 1.13 inches—0.16 inches less than usual. Topsoil moisture was rated 3% very short, 13% short, 67% adequate, and 17% surplus. Subsoil moisture was rated 5% very short, 18% short, 64% adequate, and 13% surplus.
Winter wheat is progressing rapidly, with 73% headed compared to the five-year average of 53%. Crop condition ratings for winter wheat were reported as 2% very poor, 5% poor, 20% fair, 63% good, and 10% excellent.
As the growing season advances, attention will remain on weather patterns and evolving crop conditions, especially given the significant drop in wheat production and the mixed outlook for corn and soybeans.